Phillies Foul Balls

The Phillies have two triples tonight. From Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. Excuse me while I go check the sky for flying pigs…

Today I guess I’m stealing a page from Paul Lukas’ work.

A few months ago I was thinking that the Phillies were staying out of the alternate uniform silliness and that was something to be grateful for because most of them are truly dreadful. In addition the Phillies don’t exactly have a great history with alternates. Shortly after that I heard the Phils were in fact going to have essentially an alternate uni for next year and was somewhat dreading what would turn up.

As it turns out, the dread was misplaced. All in all the new duds aren’t that bad. The historical look is a nice touch and the colors blend far better than the ridiculous blue caps in 1994 did. I still prefer the regular home uniforms, I guess after all these years they just don’t look right without the red pinstripes, but these don’t provoke a “What they hell were they thinking?” reaction like a bunch of other alternates do.

Are the Phillies really that desperate that they’re picking up castoffs from the Pirates?!?

John Sickels just put me on the floor with a graphic on his blog. Why do I get the feeling that in future years when the Mets fans start that obnoxious chant at CBP, they’re going to be met with a 2007 chant or something similar. Although it doesn’t scan as nicely as the 1918 chat the Red Sox used to get heckled with.

While I’m still enjoying the amazing comeback to win the division, I’m also starting to think about the Division Series, or more precisely who the Phils are going to play. Since the Wild Card is definitely coming out of the West, whichever team it is can’t play Arizona in the Division Series, so it’ll be the D-Backs against the Cubs and the Phils against either the Rockies or Padres. I’m not sure which team would be better for the Phillies to face, but having it come out of a playoff game tomorrow would definitely be beneficial. If the Padres get in by winning tomorrow that means Jake Peavy will be used and can’t start until game 3 and thus would only pitch once. Cole Hamels on the other hand would be perfectly set up to pitch in game 1 and again in game 5 if needed. So at least for today, go Rockies.

If you’re a Phillies fan, you can not escape 1964. That happened years before I was born, yet I still instinctively twitch when I hear about about that pennant race. They said making the postseason in 1976 would put it to rest, they said winning it all in 1980 would do it, but it still has that effect. I’m not sure it will ever go completely away. But I think those ghosts are resting a lot easier tonight.

They did it!

Could it be?!?

Could it be?

Could it be?

He walks a guy and doesn’t give up anything else, completely par for the course. The question is do they send him back out for the 8th, try Myers for two, or run someone else (Geary or Condrey probably) out there for the next inning. It probably depends on whether or not they score more runs in the 7th.

6 more to go in each.

I think we’re now into the counting the outs stage. Nine to go in each.

Looks like we’re gunning for 3 2/3 from the big three out of the bullpen. Boy would I love to see the Phils put up about 10 runs in the bottom of this inning.

Glavine is not getting the calls he likes from Joe West, the Marlins are being smart at the plate, and the Mets are still kicking the ball around. 4-0 Marlins with 1 out in the 1st. It’s hard to imagine a better start from the Phils perspective, and CBP must be going nuts.

So here we go. Two games and a ridiculous range of options. It could be heartbreak, it could just be postponing a day of reckoning until tomorrow, or it could finally, finally be the breakthrough. Of course I’m hoping for the breakthrough. The rational part of me is saying that the playoff game tomorrow is the most likely option. But then there’s the long-time Phillies fan in me, and that’s bracing for and expecting the heartbreak.

Four or five hours from now we’ll know which way things have gone.

It really shouldn’t be a surprise that this thing is going down to the final day. But oh brother, what a bad way to go into that final day. All told, given that we had Eaton starting, things weren’t that bad. However we got let down on some other fronts. The offense is the obvious culprit with how little they generated, but the defense gets some brickbats as well. In particular, while I think Carlos Ruiz has done a very solid job this year, he made two crucial mental mistakes today which cost the team dearly.

The first was in the fourth he threw to second instead of third on the sacrifice bunt. He would have had the runner easily at
third, and with runners on first and second, the fly to left wouldn’t have scored anyone. Then in the seventh he got an error for the overthrown at second, but that ball should never have been thrown, not with a key insurance run for the Nationals sitting at third. Take those away and it’s a whole different story.

So once again the Phils are playing meaningful games on the last day. Two years ago I dug up that 2005 was only the third time it had happened, so this makes it the fourth. (1950 and 1964 were the first two.) In all of those cases they were either a game up or a game behind going into that last day. This is the first time they’ll ever have been tied for first going into that final day.

I can’t say as how I particularly like the pitching matchups either. We have to hope that Dontrelle Willis finds something somewhere, because he’s been pretty lousy all year long. Likewise we have to hope that the good Jamie Moyer shows up because the bad one has been showing up an awful lot recently and the results haven’t been pretty. Could be a very stressful afternoon tomorrow.

What the hell is Manuel thinking putting Mesa in the game in this situation?

Really, were they expecting anything else out of Eaton? I really hope that we’ve seen the last of him, but with that awful three year contract, he’s going to be back next year I’m sure.

The biggest thing about Hamels’ outstanding performance last night (and it really was phenominal) is that it provided at least a little margin for error. While the road is a lot easier if they win today, a loss isn’t going to put them in a disastrous spot. Plus by going 8, the bullpen got a bit of a break. I suspect the hope from here is to use Geary and Durbin to get through the 6th, maybe an inning out of Lohse, and then see where we are. Hopefully the bats will wake up and they’ll piece it together.

I was noticing this evening that the various announcers on ESPN came coming back to the same reaction for the situation in the NL East. Over and over there would be a pause followed by “Wow.” That’s about where I am right now.

They’ve come close so many times in recent years, but now it’s right there. That alone is hard to believe, but after everything that’s happened this year, the ridiculous number of injuries, some of the gawdawful losses, it’s still there for the taking.

How soon do the next games start?

I was somewhat surprised this morning to see that Baseball Prospectus’ postseason odds had the Phillies only at an 8% chance of winning the wild card, but now that I think about it, that makes sense. They’d have to catch the Brewers to win the wild card, which probably means taking 2 or 3 over the weekend. However in that case they’re more likely to make the postseason as the East champs. Realistically about the only way they make it as the wild card is out of one of those insane multi-way playoff scenarios.

Looking around it seems like there’s a level of almost giddiness about the Phillies right now. While some of it is certainly understandable, some of it has also gone overboard. Voters on ESPN apparently have the Phils in first place in the “Who’s your pick to win the World Series” question which is just nuts. More importantly though, they haven’t won anything yet and we’re into the sudden death portion of the schedule. A mini-slump of two losses and the Mets taking advantage of terrible Marlins pitching to win two, and suddenly the Phillies are done for the year.

With that in mind, and an Eaton start looming tomorrow, tonight’s game is unbelievably important. This is probably the most favorable pitching matchup of the weekend, plus they don’t want to fall back behind after finally catching up. While I understand and generally agree with the caution in terms of using Hamels, we may be getting towards “A flag flies forever” territory making it worth the risk to push him a little bit. In an ideal world, he goes 7 on about 90-95 pitches while the offense goes nuts and he can come out with a 9-1 lead or something like that. I really would prefer not to see Gordon, Romero, and Myers tonight if they can help it. They can’t be far from arm falling off territory.

The Padres are leading again. If they don’t lose we’re never going to catch them for the wild ca… Oh. Wait.

I’ve been thinking wild card for so long and for so many years it’s actually become habit. But here we are, three days left and in control for the division title. (Granted maybe with a one-game playoff needed but still.)

In a lot of ways it feels like any sort of analysis is really superfluous and really I just want to sit back and enjoy the ride. And take a slightly nasty sense of satisfaction in the waves of panic radiating from New York.

As I said a month ago, I know these are still the Phillies and there’s a good chance they’re going to do something to mess it all up. But damn do I want to believe that this is the year.

Gordon and Romero get the job done, so now we’ve got Texiera exactly the way we want him, coming up with no one on and at least a three run lead. As long as Myers has anything remotely close to his good stuff this is looking promising. I’m not sure I really believe the Nats are going to hold on against the Mets, but for the moment this is fun.

Lohse did his job. I was thinking that it might make sense to leave him out there, but given what Victorino did, it’s hard to argue with the results.

Still the bullpen worries me a lot. (As I type this Gordon just walked the first batter. Great.) I hope Manuel’s willing to use Myers for more than just the 9th if need be.

A few days ago the Inquirer ran an article which included comments to the effect of “Don’t the Phillies know that this is when they’re supposed to be folding?” My reaction at the time was that it was a little too early to be saying that. Over the past few years there’s usually been a point where they were either tied for a playoff spot or actually had the lead. Then they would have an inopportune losing streak and that would be it. Now that they’re tied for the wild card lead, it’s the time when we can expect bad things to start happening.

Failing to strike out Mark Texiera in the first inning tonight looks like it’s right in line with that pattern…

Suppose the following were to happen:

1) The Phils finish the season going 4-2.

2) The Mets go 2-4.

3) The Padres also go 4-2.

4) The Rockies take 2 out of 3 in Los Angeles.

5) The Diamondbacks only manage 1 out of three in Pittsburgh.

6) Colorado then sweeps the D-Backs over the weekend.

If all of those were to happen, we’d have a two-way tie in the East and a three-way tie in the West, everyone with 89 wins. The “one-game playoffs” turn into something that last most of next week at that point. I think it would be possible to do it in such a way that no team would have to play more than three games, with winning two meaning you’re into the post-season and losing two meaning you’re definitely out. But wow would that be chaos.

The really crazy thing is that at least the first four parts of that scenario seem awfully possible to me, and I wouldn’t bet against the Rockies sweeping the Snakes in Coors Field.

Seems like there are a bunch of people unhappy with Manuel for lifting Hamels when he did yesterday. I can understand that to a certain degree, but I’m not too inclined to argue with the decision. After all it was only Hamels second start after a month on the DL and he’s still being stretched back out. Thinking back to the stretching out process in spring training is what usually happens is when a pitcher gets pushed a little too far he loses effectiveness and gets hit hard before being yanked. Bringing in Alfonseca was perhaps asking for trouble, but I think Hamels had probably gone as far as he should have.

What I don’t understand is using Kane Davis for the 8th. Davis has been, to be blunt, pretty ineffective when he’s been used. A WHIP of 2.21 does not exactly inspire confidence. While none of them have exactly been world beaters, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, and John Ennis have all been at least somewhat better than Davis and none of them had been used recently. Furthermore I’d take the chance on the bad J.D. Durbin coming out and used him instead because if the good one showed up odds of a 1-2-3 inning would have been pretty good.

On the positive side, I liked the move of bringing Lohse in for an inning. Yes it smacked a bit of desperation, but well, perhaps that’s appropriate under the circumstances.

The Phils recent unbelievable surge has really upped their expected win total. For the past couple of months I’ve been thinking they were going to hit their favorite record of 86-76 again. Well that could still happen but at this point it would be a massive disappointment, meaning they had gone 1-6 over the last week. If they can win more than they lose in those 7, they’ll have their highest win total since 1993, and incredibly enough, a 90 win season is suddenly within the realm of the possible. They’d have to finish 5-2, so it wouldn’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible. They might need that to make the playoffs, although the Padres are looking more mortal than they had earlier this week.

Well the Phils won and Adam Eaton got the win, but I can’t say I was particularly impressed. That probably showed in my muttering “Get him out of there!” starting with the second batter in the bottom of the 1st. Ok, so maybe I was jumping the gun a little bit, but Eaton seemed to be walking on the edge for most of the time he was in there. More than ever I think that the Phils need to push Eaton’s next start back. I really don’t want to see him face the Braves.

Meanwhile it looks like the Marlins aren’t going to help tonight, but hopefully the Rockies can hang on.

Forget the divisions, here are the standings to keep an eye on.

W L GB

Arizona 86 67 -

SD 85 67 .5

NY 84 68 1.5

Phi 83 70 3

Col 81 72 5

They need to finish in the top three to make the playoffs. The interesting thing is that the Rockies are a really long shot, but they do play 6 games against the D-Backs and Padres. If the Phillies keep their recent winning pace, the Rockies could help a lot, but if the Phils slow down at all, even if the teams ahead of them are losing, they’re going to be in trouble.

In other words, win or pack it in for another season.

You have to assume that Manuel and Dubee are thinking about the rotation for the rest of the season and this point and I figured I’d take a crack at it.

The rest of this weekend is the easy part. Eaton (gulp) tomorrow, Kendrick on Saturday, and Hamels on Sunday. The off day on Monday is what gives them some flexibility. I don’t see any reason to back off of Moyer going on Tuesday.  Lohse looked awful tonight, but he’s turned out some decent outings so I’d keep him there for Wednesday. On the other hand I’d skip over Eaton for Thursday and run out Kendrick to face the Braves. Then Hamels to start the last series with the Nationals for a variety of reasons. After the way he’s been pitching this week I’d be tempted to give Durbin a start in the Saturday game, but if they keep Eaton in there, it has to be a “all hand on deck” game with the bullpen ready to go at a moment’s notice. That leaves Moyer going in the finale and we would have to hope the good Moyer shows up.

The hidden benefit to this is that if they pitch Hamels for the Friday game, then if they make the playoffs, he’s perfectly set up to start the first playoff game the following Wednesday. Really, it should be a no-brainer.

I haven’t tracked down any hard data on this, but my gut feeling about the bullpen is that they are either extremely good or phenominally bad. That’s certainly been the case over the past two games. If the good shows up more than the bad, I guess I’ll take it, but boy would it be nice to have at least a little bit in between.

I have no problem with the Phillies taking some players in the middle rounds of the draft who might work out, but have some definite issue around them that might cause them to not work out. Really, that’s the perfect time to take a flier with a pick.

However I think they may have misunderstood the term this time around…