How many more do they need?
Once again the postseason spot is right there for the taking. But how many more wins do the Phillies need? While for rivalry reasons it would be nice to finish ahead of the Mets again, the real issue is just making it to the playoffs. So how many of the remaining 9 games do they need to win to make it?
The glib answer is that winning either 8 or 9 of those will guarantee it. True enough, but it’s almost certainly not going to take that many. If the Phils go 7-2 the worst case scenario is a playoff to get into the postseason, and that’s only if the Brewers run the table and the Mets win at least 8 of their 10. I doubt either is going to happen, let alone both.
A 6-3 record is the best one where there’s still the theoretical possibility of them being passed without even a playoff, but that takes the same scenario that a tie after going 7-2 would take. Not gonna happen. A tie is slightly more possible but only barely. It would require the Mets to win at least 7 and the Brewers to go 8-1. If that happens, I’ll be swearing, but damn what a race that would be.
At the other end if they win 0, 1, or 2, they’ll almost certainly get passed and would deserve to be. 3 wins might barely be enough for the wild card but the Brewers would have to keep staggering and the Marlins and Astros might just sneak into the picture if they run the table or lose only 1. If they go down that path there are going to be some nervous days the last weekend.
All of that leaves us with the middling options, going 4-5 or 5-4 in the last three series. I’m starting to think that might be enough. In particular 5-4 means that the Brewers and Mets are the only relevant teams that could catch them and I’m skeptical of the Brewers managing 7-2 or better down the stretch, especially if Sheets is hurt. It would probably go until next Saturday or so until they clinched, but they probably would. 4-5 probably means another all or nothing last day of the season and given the position they’re in right now, I’d rather not see that. Still, with that being said, I’d say there’s at least a 50-50 chance that that would be enough to get them in.
Given all that, my feeling is not getting swept by the Marlins, then winning the last two series at home should be the minimal baseline for what to hope for. And that’s very, very doable.