Phillies Foul Balls

I guess it’s time for some predictions for the season. I’ll go one step further than before and include projected won lost records.

NL East

I’m much more confident about the lower portion of the division than I am about the upper. The Mets probably have the best overall talent, but they are astonishingly thin in terms of depth and they have some very old players. If Santana were to run into an injury problem early in the season they could implode pretty quickly. The Phillies are the same team they have been for years. They will score a ton of runs, but it’s not clear that they’ll have enough pitching. As always they’ll probably wind up in the upper 80s in terms of wins which is a ridiculous (and somewhat annoying) form of consistency. I don’t think the Braves have quite enough pitching either, but they definitely can’t be ignored because their farm system has been consistently turning out talent. The Nats are a bland, mediocre team, so they’ll have to rely on the new ballpark to draw fans. The Marlins seem to be on the old Expos path which is not a good sign.

NL Central

I’m picking the Cubbies almost by default here, but they should be a pretty good team. Signing Fukodome was an excellent pickup and they’ve probably got a year or two more before age starts to kick in with some players. The Brewers are getting bitten already by the injury bug and I think this is going to be a year of consolidating their gains before being a very dangerous team next year. The Reds are a lot better than people thing, but they’ve got the wrong manager for their players. The Cardinals have massive pitching problems and probably need a top-to-bottom housecleaning. The Pirates are going to tie the Phillies’ unwanted record for most consecutive losing seasons, but they at least show some signs of working on and implementing a plan for improvement. The Astros on the other hand do not. They just look very lost.
NL West

This is perhaps the most interesting division in the game this year, with four teams I could see winning the division. The Dodgers have been stockpiling young talent for a while and if they let them play the way they should, I like them to come out on top, but it’s going to be a dogfight. The D-Backs won 90 last year but were outscored in doing so. I think they’re not likely to be outscored again, but they won’t be as lucky as they were. They’re still a good young team though. The Rockies has an unbelievable run last year but that looks a little too much like lightning in a bottle for me to believe they’ll make it out of a tough division this year. The Padres are a little too old and injury prone, so I think they’re going to slide out of contention. Then there are the Giants. With apologies to one of my regular commenters, that is one hell of an awful baseball team. I mean really, they got a couple of interesting young pitchers but that’s it. Aaron Rowand is going to come to really regret signing there I think.

AL East

Yup, Boston is well on their way to being the new Evil Empire. Lots of talent, a good mix of old and young players, and some depth if things go wrong. I think the old Empire is going to struggle (by their standards) a bit this year and a very good but not great Blue Jays team will sneak past them. Unfortunately it still won’t be enough for the Jays. Tampa is a trendy pick to make some noise, and while they’re definitely better and have lots of potential for future years they aren’t quite there yet. Next year perhaps. Then there are the Orioles who are just floundering; a pretty bad, not very interesting team.

AL Central

This looks like it’s going to be one heck of division race. Or would be if it weren’t for the fact that both Detroit and Cleveland should make the postseason regardless of who wins the division. Those are two strong deep teams. Meanwhile the White Sox and Twins have lost too many pieces from their strong years earlier this decade. They won’t be bad teams, but they just don’t have the roster to compete. The Royals on the other hand are what they have been for the past few years, which is just not very good.

AL West

Another choice more or less by default. The Angels have been hurt by injuries but have enough depth to hold out and there really isn’t anyone else to challenge them. The Mariners were competitive last year but they were playing way over the heads and they’re going to come back to earth this year. The A’s are rebuilding this year and could be interesting next year. For this year they’re a middle of the pack team. The Rangers are another one of those teams that doesn’t really seem to have a clear vision of what they’re doing.

Picking pennant winners and the like at this point is a bit foolish, but I’ll go with the Indians and the Cubs for the World Series with the Indians being the ones to end their drought.

Roll on Opening Day!