Pleasant sights and nasty thoughts.
Watching Howard go yard tonight has me thinking a bit about his future. For this year I think it’s safe to say that barring injury, Schmidt’s season HR record is toast. And from the record-breaker to 50 HR is one more, so that’s a pretty safe bet as well. Beyond that? I think his most likely season total is around 55, since that’s pretty much the rate he’s been hitting them all year long. If he goes nuts against the weaker competition though, 60 is not completely out of the question. If he winds up a couple short I think management may kick themselves for moving in the fences.
The nasty side comes when thinking about down the line. There’s no question that Howard’s a great offensive player right now, but he does not have the body type that is likely to age well. I’ve seen more than one comparison to Mo Vaughn, which is distressingly plausible. But closer to home is another comparison. In 2002 Pat Burrell had a great offensive season, but has been inconsistent since then and has been badly hobbled by injuries this year. Ryan Howard is actually about a year older now than Burrell was in 2002. While I’d like to think that he’ll form part of a high-powered core of the lineup with Utley through 2010 or so, I worry that injuries may slow him down as well.
Ah well, if that happens the Phils will have to deal with it then. Hopefully they’ve got a player or two in mind somewhere in the pipeline who could be used if Howard does get hurt and who can be trade bait if not needed.