Not gonna happen, but let’s dream.
Well the Phillies have managed to scramble their way from a situation where they needed to make up 6.5 games and climb over 9 teams, to one where they need to make up 2.5 games and crawl over 4 teams to make it to the playoffs. If they’re going to have any chance, the next two weeks are going to be crucial since they play 7 against the Mets and 3 against the Reds in that stretch. After that only 3 of the remaining 42 games are against teams who currently have a winning record. How about some scenarios based off of that.
1) The impossible dream. They’ve got 10 games against the Mets this month, so you never know right? File this one under theoretically possible but… Unlike the wild card they don’t have to climb over a lot of teams, but really the gap is way too wide. They’d probably have to win 9 out of the 10 against the Mets to even get them to notice. Winning 7 out of the 10 which is probably the realistic upper bound on what we might expect would not do nearly enough. But it would be fun. And funny to watch the Mets panic.
2) The realism. The Phils have been playing well, but they’ve got a fairly young rotation right now and young pitchers can be inconsistent. Some flameouts are to be expected, especially against good teams. A complete collapse isn’t likely, but a 6-7 stretch would probably the best bet for what’s going to happen. That would likely slide them a little bit back in the pack of 8 (!) teams clustered together in the chase, and leave them about where they started, namely wait until next year.
3) How it could happen. With the Braves looking mortal without Chipper and the Reds playing poorly, take 4 or 5 out of the 6 against them, and then take 4 out of the 7 with the Mets who have been poking along around .500 for a while after an outstanding start. At the very least that would likely clear a couple of the teams in between them and the top, and likely get them to within a game or so. Then have it click for the young pitchers down the stretch that they can keep it up enough to pass everyone else.
Over their past 22 games, the Phils are 14-8. If they can keep that pace up over the last 55 (very unlikely I know) they’d go 35-20 to finish up with 87 wins. I’m guessing that would be enough given the weak state of the league.
I suspect within a couple weeks, the questions will be “who should be kept for next year” and “can they do enough to finish with a winning record” but for now this is kind of entertaining in a ridiculous way.
August 5th, 2006 at 10:44 am
As has been the case from day 1, this team will go as far as the pitching lets them. The offense covered an otherwise lousy performance from Myers and Madson Wednesday night, but this will have to happen several more times before it becomes accepted as the norm. And while trading away Lidle and Cormier was probably the right move, I fear it may leave them just short in the pitching category, as both were pitching well (I was thinking they could have used a lefty specialist in the 7th last night to go after Floyd, but Madson got the job done).
August 11th, 2006 at 8:01 am
I’ll keep dreaming…I want this to happen. I seriously doubt it come to fruition, but hey, at least they’re playing better!