Phillies Foul Balls

The Phillies have two triples tonight. From Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. Excuse me while I go check the sky for flying pigs…

Hmm, let’s see. Early May and the Giants are in town. Game goes to extra innings. Giants take the lead on a homer, only to have the Phils win it on a two-out homer in the bottom of the inning. Where have I seen this before? Granted a homer from Pat Burrell is a little less surprising…

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The roster revolving door continues. The unsurprising move is Chris Snelling heading to the DL. Snelling’s entire career history is that he’s a good player when he’s healthy, but he’s very rarely healthy. Unfortunate but not unexpected. As a result TJ Bohn gets to sit on the bench and maybe get a couple pinch hitting appearances until Victorino is ready to come off the DL in a week.

The move getting more attention is Rollins finally going onto the DL. Much of the commentary is centered around the fact that after about 10 days of “he’s day-to-day” this is rather a big change. I’ve got a theory about what the real change is though, namely the upcoming schedule. I don’t think it’s too much to say that Rollins is really strongly invested in the rivalry with the Mets. If he had gone on the DL when he was first injured that would have automatically meant that he would miss this series against the Mets. Once it became clear he wasn’t going to be healthy enough to play in the series, he changed his tune and started saying it might make more sense to go on the DL.

Maybe I’m wrong about this, but the timing sure looks suspicious. I can’t say I’m entirely surprised though. I was expected something along this lines for a while, given the Phillies’ history with injury management.

Meanwhile it’s something of a sad reflection on the state of the upper level of the Phillies farm system that they brought up Brad Harmon to replace Rollins. Harmon may be a decent player eventually but there’s no way he’s ready for the big leagues now. I’m guessing he’s up solely because he’s already on the 40-man roster so this move isn’t going to cause them to burn any options. If they had called up Jason Donald they would have had to burn an option when they sent him back down when Rollins is back. Meanwhile the Iron Pigs have no one, which somewhat explains their record.

Let’s see. A forecast for a beautiful spring evening. The Mets coming to town for the first time since that amazing 4 game sweep last August. A sellout crowd at CBP. And Cole Hamels against Johan Santana. This should be fun.

I guess it’s time for some predictions for the season. I’ll go one step further than before and include projected won lost records.

NL East

I’m much more confident about the lower portion of the division than I am about the upper. The Mets probably have the best overall talent, but they are astonishingly thin in terms of depth and they have some very old players. If Santana were to run into an injury problem early in the season they could implode pretty quickly. The Phillies are the same team they have been for years. They will score a ton of runs, but it’s not clear that they’ll have enough pitching. As always they’ll probably wind up in the upper 80s in terms of wins which is a ridiculous (and somewhat annoying) form of consistency. I don’t think the Braves have quite enough pitching either, but they definitely can’t be ignored because their farm system has been consistently turning out talent. The Nats are a bland, mediocre team, so they’ll have to rely on the new ballpark to draw fans. The Marlins seem to be on the old Expos path which is not a good sign.

NL Central

I’m picking the Cubbies almost by default here, but they should be a pretty good team. Signing Fukodome was an excellent pickup and they’ve probably got a year or two more before age starts to kick in with some players. The Brewers are getting bitten already by the injury bug and I think this is going to be a year of consolidating their gains before being a very dangerous team next year. The Reds are a lot better than people thing, but they’ve got the wrong manager for their players. The Cardinals have massive pitching problems and probably need a top-to-bottom housecleaning. The Pirates are going to tie the Phillies’ unwanted record for most consecutive losing seasons, but they at least show some signs of working on and implementing a plan for improvement. The Astros on the other hand do not. They just look very lost.
NL West

This is perhaps the most interesting division in the game this year, with four teams I could see winning the division. The Dodgers have been stockpiling young talent for a while and if they let them play the way they should, I like them to come out on top, but it’s going to be a dogfight. The D-Backs won 90 last year but were outscored in doing so. I think they’re not likely to be outscored again, but they won’t be as lucky as they were. They’re still a good young team though. The Rockies has an unbelievable run last year but that looks a little too much like lightning in a bottle for me to believe they’ll make it out of a tough division this year. The Padres are a little too old and injury prone, so I think they’re going to slide out of contention. Then there are the Giants. With apologies to one of my regular commenters, that is one hell of an awful baseball team. I mean really, they got a couple of interesting young pitchers but that’s it. Aaron Rowand is going to come to really regret signing there I think.

AL East

Yup, Boston is well on their way to being the new Evil Empire. Lots of talent, a good mix of old and young players, and some depth if things go wrong. I think the old Empire is going to struggle (by their standards) a bit this year and a very good but not great Blue Jays team will sneak past them. Unfortunately it still won’t be enough for the Jays. Tampa is a trendy pick to make some noise, and while they’re definitely better and have lots of potential for future years they aren’t quite there yet. Next year perhaps. Then there are the Orioles who are just floundering; a pretty bad, not very interesting team.

AL Central

This looks like it’s going to be one heck of division race. Or would be if it weren’t for the fact that both Detroit and Cleveland should make the postseason regardless of who wins the division. Those are two strong deep teams. Meanwhile the White Sox and Twins have lost too many pieces from their strong years earlier this decade. They won’t be bad teams, but they just don’t have the roster to compete. The Royals on the other hand are what they have been for the past few years, which is just not very good.

AL West

Another choice more or less by default. The Angels have been hurt by injuries but have enough depth to hold out and there really isn’t anyone else to challenge them. The Mariners were competitive last year but they were playing way over the heads and they’re going to come back to earth this year. The A’s are rebuilding this year and could be interesting next year. For this year they’re a middle of the pack team. The Rangers are another one of those teams that doesn’t really seem to have a clear vision of what they’re doing.

Picking pennant winners and the like at this point is a bit foolish, but I’ll go with the Indians and the Cubs for the World Series with the Indians being the ones to end their drought.

Roll on Opening Day!

According to the reports that are floating around, the Phillies are about to sign Pedro Feliz to a two year contract. It’s tempting to leave the analysis at pointing out the fact that Baseball Prospectus’ list of comparable players to Feliz has late career Charlie Hayes right at the top. Really, it’s hard to top that for pithy indictments.

However perhaps some detail. The plus side to all of this is that the pitching staff should be happy. Feliz is unquestionably a good defender slightly better than Abraham Nunez was and worlds better than Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs have been. Right now the Phillies have an outstanding defensive infield or at least three-quarters of an infield. (Subway commercial aside, Howard’s defense is, uh, not good.) In fact the only weak defensive spots are going to be left and first so they are in good shape there.

Offensively, well, yeah, there’s the rub. While I’m usually a huge proponent of on-base percentage, I will admit that in certain circumstances a low OBP, high slugging guy can be useful in a lineup, in particular if he’s hitting behind a bunch of high OBP guys. My usual example is that in 1993 Pete Incaviglia was a useful player because he was behind Kruk, Hollins, and Daulton who were always on base. When he came back in 1996, he was a waste of a spot because they didn’t have those guys getting on base. Feliz might actually be closer to the first case here. If he’s hitting behind Utley, Howard, Burrell, and Werth that’s a lot of OBP ahead of him, so if he can pop 20 to 25 homers, he’s going to knock in a lot of runs.

That being said, my thinking for a useful low OBP high power guy is someone with an OBP around .310 to .320, not someone in the .280 to .290 range like Feliz is. That’s just really awful. Even Nunez managed higher than that last year. That being said, neither Helms nor Nunez came close to the power Feliz showed, so the only one of the three they had at third who I’d say definitely hit better than Feliz was Dobbs, and I can’t shake the feeling that last year was a career year for him.

Putting all that together, I’m not really sure this is going to hurt the Phillies all that much, if at all. Feliz is not a good overall player, but they were so unbelievably weak at the position last year, there’s really nowhere to go but up. If Feliz keeps up the defense and the power, the overall production from third might go up a little bit. Just not very much.

Today I guess I’m stealing a page from Paul Lukas’ work.

A few months ago I was thinking that the Phillies were staying out of the alternate uniform silliness and that was something to be grateful for because most of them are truly dreadful. In addition the Phillies don’t exactly have a great history with alternates. Shortly after that I heard the Phils were in fact going to have essentially an alternate uni for next year and was somewhat dreading what would turn up.

As it turns out, the dread was misplaced. All in all the new duds aren’t that bad. The historical look is a nice touch and the colors blend far better than the ridiculous blue caps in 1994 did. I still prefer the regular home uniforms, I guess after all these years they just don’t look right without the red pinstripes, but these don’t provoke a “What they hell were they thinking?” reaction like a bunch of other alternates do.

Are the Phillies really that desperate that they’re picking up castoffs from the Pirates?!?

The wire service story on the trade seems to answer one of the questions, namely Lidge is going to be the closer and Myers is moving back to the rotation. The trade’s now looking even better. I also have to laugh at Ed Wade once again talking up having picked up a veteran reliever.

This one snuck up on everyone I think. The Phils get Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett in exchange for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Constanzo. (I think Ed Wade is eager to regain some of the players he drafted.)
I love the Lidge pickup; I know he’s been regarded as being down over the past couple of years after the homer to Pujols in the NLCS, but I really think way too much has been made of it. He’s still a strikeout machine and that’s what you want in a reliever, especially in a bandbox like CBP. Bruntlett is a very generic utility infielder, but I guess we know who replaces Abraham Nunez in that role.

They also didn’t give up all that much. Bourn is an excellent defensive player, but I’m really not convinced that he’s ever going to hit enough to be an everyday player. However I wouldn’t be surprised to see him enjoy a solid career as a fourth outfielder/part-time starter. Geary is about to hit arbitration and get expensive, which in turn reduces his value. As a cheap fungible reliever he’s got value, but if his salary starts going up via arbitration, he’s a lot less useful. Constanzo is looking more and more like a bust with his struggles at Reading this year and a dreadful performance in the Arizona Fall League. All told that’s not a huge package to be giving up.

The trade does raise some interesting other questions though. Does Lidge move into the closer role or does he become a setup guy. I’m happy to have him in either role, but of course if he does become the closer, that means Myers is likely headed back to the rotation. This may depend on whether or not the Phillies can land a starter somewhere else. Another issue is what this means for the outfield. If they resign Rowand they’re still in pretty good shape with only a fifth outfielder needed and that’s a spot that could definitely be filled via a non-tendered free agent similar to how they landed Jason Werth last year. However if Rowand walks or if they get stupid and actually trade Burrell, they’re suddenly very thin. I’m comfortable with a starting outfield of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth, but there’s nothing on the horizon for reserves/injury insurance. While Chris Roberson is still on the roster I’m convinced that he’s effectively done with the Phillies and I see no reason to be optimistic about T.J. Bohn. There definitely seems to be some work still to do there.

All told it’s a good first move of the off-season, but there should be move to come. It’ll be interesting to see what happens next.

Well the feelings of doom I had in the late innings Saturday turned out to be accurate and the season ended. (If they had pulled that out, they would have gone against Mark Redman in game 4 and had Hamels going at home in game 5. Game 3 was the tough one and they couldn’t pull it off.) After the initial disappointment has faded, I have to admit it’s been a heck of a ride. From that incredible four game sweep of the Mets in late August through the end of the year it was crazy, exciting, and a ton of fun. So thanks Phillies, 2007 has been a season to remember.

That being said, I still have big concerns about the future of the team and more importantly the organizational culture in place. I think the nucleus is there to have a team that puts up several mid-90 win seasons over the next few years, assuming the right supporting moves are made. However I think we’re far more likely to see what we’ve seen for most of this decade, namely a good but not great team that might sneak into the playoffs somewhere along the line, but more often fall just short. I’ve got a lengthy explanation of why I think that kicking around in the back of my head. I’ll try and get that written this weekend, but it may take a while.

It took me a long time to get into this game tonight, but Victorino’s homer got me going. Now I’m pacing the floor like mad here in the 8th.
Tonight Rollins has reverted to his form a few years back where he was very vulnerable to the high and outside fastball. Talk about lousy timing. Hopefully the bullpen can hold though and somehow we can scratch out a run.

Unlike yesterday I wasn’t able to watch today’s game, but boy it seems like I didn’t miss much. Looking over the log it looks like unlike yesterday there are things to argue with.

The part that is in no way second guessing is pointing out that the 6th inning is exactly why Jose Mesa should not have been anywhere close to the post-season roster. He is done. Cooked. Nothing left. It’s entirely possible JD Durbin would have gotten hit hard as well, but there’s a better chance he would have been able to give them some decent innings. I suppose given that Mesa was on the roster and the situation at the time, using him was slightly defensible, but I still would have preferred seeing Condrey out there first.

The big second guess comes with the fourth inning. In a mid-season game, there’s no way Kendrick would have been yanked in that situation. He would have gotten the chance to pitch out of it, and you can make a case that the same should have applied here. I think the decision to yank him was defensible but I’m much less convinced of bringing Lohse in. Lohse is a starter, he’s not used to coming in and dealing with some other pitcher’s mess.

What I would really liked to have seen is probably asking too much. The Phillies have three relievers who they trust in tight situations. That situation was fairly clearly one of the higher leverage moments in the game. If Manuel was going to make a change, I would have like to see Romero or Gordon in that situation to get out of the inning and maybe give them one more inning before going to Lohse to start a later inning and maybe get them through too more. Given how much that flies in the face of the “right” way to use a bullpen though, it’s probably unrealistic to think they’d try that.

It’s not looking good from here. The matchups don’t favor the Phils on Saturday and even after that they’d have to take two more. It’s not impossible, but it’s really unlikely.

After all this team seems to play best from behind right? So by going down after the first game it puts them right in their comfort zone.

Um, ok, maybe not. Still, it’s one of those games where you really can’t say all that much. Francis was pitching extremely well and he was just better today. Hamels had the one bad inning and the way Francis was going, that cost them. It was frustrating to watch at the time, but in the long run it’s not going to be notorious the way some of the playoff losses in the past have been.

Still at this point Kendrick absolutely positively needs to come up big tomorrow. Hopefully the bats will wake up enough that his usual 6 innings of 3 run ball will be enough to get the job done.

Looks like I was off on one point, namely they went with all 15 eligible position players instead of 14. Given that the series is going to include two off days and also comes after two days off, that’s probably reasonable. It also indicates fairly clearly to me that they are very worried about Carlos Ruiz.

Even with only 6 relievers, there’s room for quibbling. The top four (Myers, Gordon, Romero, and Condrey) aren’t a surprise and probably weren’t that hard to pick. It’s the last two, Alfonseca and Mesa, where I’ve got some issues. Apparently Geary is fighting elbow problems which explains why he isn’t there and why Alfonseca is there. Alfonseca has at least been occasionally useful this year and has had enough rest that they might sneak a decent outing out of him. But Mesa? Why? I’m not that impressed with most of the other relievers but I still take virtually any of them over Mesa.

Also of concern is that only Condrey has done anything in terms of long-work out of the pen, so they could get caught short. On the other hand Manuel is apparently planning to keep Lohse in the bullpen for the first two games, the same way he was used the last week or so. I have to say I really like that approach. It’s certainly not conventional, but under the circumstances I think it’s likely to be the best use of the available resources. If they need him for an inning or two on Thursday they can move Moyer to start Saturday and Lohse should be ready to go Sunday if needed. I’ve criticized Manuel for going too much by the book in the past, but this is a welcome change from that.

One other interesting fact is that with the first two games starting at 3, shadows on the field are going to be a real issue and the starting pitchers may fare much better than would be expected from these particular offenses.

Man, we’ve been waiting 14 years for this and it’s finally about here. Let’s go Phils!

John Sickels just put me on the floor with a graphic on his blog. Why do I get the feeling that in future years when the Mets fans start that obnoxious chant at CBP, they’re going to be met with a 2007 chant or something similar. Although it doesn’t scan as nicely as the 1918 chat the Red Sox used to get heckled with.

Just as a side note for this, I finally get to do this! I’ve had thoughts for these sorts of posts in previous years but of course they never happened.

After the expanded rosters last month the Phils have to go back to the usual 25 for the postseason, but they do have a bunch of choices. The basic rule is that the players have to have been on the active roster or the major league DL on August 31st. However there’s one gigantic loophole that should be used. More on that in a bit.

The first issue is what the breakdown of the roster should be, and I think the most sense would be to go with 14 position players, 4 starting pitchers and 7 relievers. If the Phils were willing to commit to using Hamels on three days rest in a potential game 4, they could go with only 3 starters, but doing that before the fact seems unwise.

The most obvious of these categories is the starters. Gee, I wonder which starter should be left out? Mr. Eaton, you and your 6+ ERA can have a seat.  Hamels is the obvious game 1 starter and will be up for game 5 if needed. My feeling is that Kyle Kendrick is probably the best bet for game 2, but a case could certainly be made for Kyle Lohse. Then the other Kyle would probably be the choice for game 3, with Moyer going in game 4.

There’s not much choice for position players either. They had 17 active at the end, but Pete Laforest wasn’t even in the organization until September 4th and Chris Roberson was in Ottawa on August 31st. Thus there’s only one cut down to make. As long as Carlos Ruiz isn’t suffering any ill effects from getting hit on the elbow yesterday, Rod Barajas seems like the obvious candidate to be left off. If they are concerned about Ruiz though, they may have to keep the three catchers, in which case one of the third basemen would probably be left off. I suspect Helms is the one to go in that case.

The bullpen is where it gets interesting. Obviously Myers, Gordon, and Romero are in. It’s tempting to make smart aleck comments to the effect that the others won’t be used, so just draw straws, but that would probably result in a really frightening result. Clay Condrey has been either really good or really bad all season long, and it makes sense to take a risk on him. They also should have someone who can eat some innings in long relief and JD Durbin has done a decent job in that role a few times, so he should be on.

Now here’s where the loophole comes in. If a team has someone on the 60 day DL, they can name a player at the same position who was in the minors on August 31st to replace him on the postseason roster. Thanks to having 6 pitchers on the 60-day DL (ok, how the hell did they win the division with 6 pitchers on the 60-day DL?) they can put pretty much whichever relievers they want out there. Given the way he pitched down the stretch, I think it’s worth using that loophole to get Geoff Geary on the roster.

The last bullpen spot is lookng pretty nasty though. I’m paranoid we’re going to see Jose Mesa on there which is perhaps the worst option they could choose. Given how complete Alfonseca disappeared down the stretch I kind of doubt he’s going to re-emerge. If they want a second lefty Fabio Castro is the only option and there are certainly worse choices, but given the usage pattern down the stretch I’m not sure Manuel has confidence in him. Which leave the choices to either Francisco Rosario or Kane Davis. I’d choose Rosario out of those two, but I’m guessing Manuel will go with Davis.

If the reports on Ryan Madson are accurate and he could be ready to come back for the NLCS if they get there, that could be a really nice addition at that point. But that’s a ways ahead.

Actually looking at that bullpen, that’s not too bad. The last spot is shaky, and I’d be perfectly happen if they never have to go to Durbin, but the other five? Yeah they could get the job done.

Ok, being able to think about these things for real is fun.